I haven’t posted for a month and a half and thus didn’t have time to make my Apple Watch prediction before it’s release. Since the jury is still out, however, I predict it will be an overall failure.
The great success of the smart phone owes to it’s eliminating the number of devices that one needs to carry, keep track of, and/or charge.
Whereas once upon a time one needed a phone, a watch, a calculator, a notepad, and perhaps a street map in one’s life, now all one needs is a smartphone.
Take a look around at the kids today… they don’t wear watches. I myself stopped wearing my watches last year. I’ve never been a fancy watch guy. However I have a number of great watches from Mistura. I love my Mistura watches. However, prior to my six month trip to Panama that started last September all of the batteries were dead. I had “get new watch batteries” on my to-do list as I was preparing for the long journey, but finally decided “screw it, what do I need a watch for”?
We can see the desire of people to eliminate the number of devices in their lives by the evolution of the I-Phone as well as the successful introduction of the smart-looking Galaxy 6 Edge.
After the introduction of the I-Pad, people started to realize that with a large enough screen and enough capabilities in their phone they didn’t have to carry their laptops around with them as much. Still, however, the I-Pad itself was an additional device to be gotten rid of it possible.
The desire by consumers to carry as few devices as possible is so great that after literally decades of phone sizes shrinking they are now actually getting larger so that consumer can cut I-Pads and similar devices out of their lives.
Now comes along the Apple telling us that we need a new device for, well, no apparent reason. Yes there is some cool functionality for some specific applications, but remember: cell phones got relentlessly smaller year after year after year until consumers realized that by making them bigger they could eliminate another device from their lives.
Apple Watch is now telling them to add another device to their lives.
It’s not going to fly.